IgniteIt · Cannabis Capital ConferenceMIAMI 2027March 24–26 · The Diplomat Beach Resort, Hollywood FL
The story behind the story.
Prices Fell in 16 of 17 Markets. Everyone Kept Expanding Anyway.
Over the past two years, retail cannabis prices fell in 16 of the 17 markets Zuanic & Associates tracks. Flower is down 43% in New Jersey and 42% in Connecticut.
In the same stretch, MariMed opened a dispensary, TerrAscend bought a retailer, and Curaleaf moved three stores around.
Those aren’t the same decision anymore — and telling them apart is now the whole job of reading a cannabis earnings report.
— Nico Rodriguez, Managing Editor
Oct. 7 in Los Angeles Los Angeles Market Spotlight — register now
One Number
16/17
The number of tracked markets where retail cannabis prices fell over the past two years. Ohio was the only exception — flower there moved from roughly $5.75 to $6.51 a gram as demand outpaced supply.
Source: Zuanic & Associates
The Big Story
Growth Didn’t Stop. The Math Changed.
MariMed opened a dispensary in Columbus. TerrAscend acquired a New Jersey retailer. Curaleaf opened one store and relocated two others.
Five years ago those announcements would have been filed together under footprint growth. Today they are three different capital-allocation decisions, and Zuanic’s pricing data explains why.
Over two years, flower prices fell roughly 43% in New Jersey, 42% in Connecticut and 18% in California. Ohio ran the other way, with prices rising as demand outpaced supply.
Three companies, three different bets
MariMed — adding capacity where pricing still supports it
TerrAscend — buying established demand after New Jersey’s price reset
Curaleaf — Pennsylvania and Connecticut moves that aren’t expansion at all, but relocations meant to make licences it already owns more productive
In a deflationary market, adding revenue doesn’t automatically create value. The choice is whether to build, buy, relocate — or do nothing.
The question to bring to the next earnings report isn’t how many stores opened. It’s what the next store actually does for the business.
Read the full analysisThe SpreadWeek 2 of 11
Curaleaf / AuroraAs of Sept. 21 close
7.8%Aurora’s discount
to offer value
to offer value
Aurora closed at $4.03 against consideration worth $4.37. Last week the gap was 7.9%.
45%Annualized return
if it closes
if it closes
66⅔%Tender threshold
Curaleaf set itself
Curaleaf set itself
68Days until
Dec. 1 expiry
Dec. 1 expiry
Why it matters: Aurora rose 7.8% this week and Curaleaf rose 9.3% — and the spread between them barely moved. A week of argument on both sides changed the market’s read on this deal by a tenth of a point.
Aurora Has to Turn Its Defense Into Numbers
Last week we asked what the spread was telling investors about Curaleaf’s odds. This week Aurora changed the subject to the business Curaleaf is trying to buy.
The company says Safari Flower should start contributing incremental revenue and adjusted EBITDA after its EU-GMP certification in July. It is pointing at Germany, Poland and the UK, and at $149 million in cash and no debt as of June 30 — a figure that includes restricted cash, short-term investments and cash equivalents.
That makes the update part operating guidance, part takeover defense. Curaleaf wants Aurora largely for the international medical infrastructure Aurora spent years building. Aurora now has to convince its own shareholders those assets are worth more on their own.
It has guided to sequential revenue and EBITDA growth in fiscal Q2 without putting numbers on it. Those results are the next real test — and they land before Dec. 1.
What We HeardDenver
What a Mature Cannabis Market Sounds Like
Colorado has mature-market problems: low wholesale prices, oversupply, thinning margins, closures, consolidation, tighter capital and falling cannabis tax revenue. That’s what made the Sept. 18 Market Spotlight worth listening to. Four voices, four vantage points.
“We are seeing a decline in the market, so as regulators, we need to understand how we are adapting — and not just reacting.”
Dominique Mendiola · Senior Director, Colorado Marijuana Enforcement & Natural Medicine Divisions
“As long as you can maintain profitability and show that you are a good operator — that you run a lean, mean business — that is the type of deal that we are looking for.”
Joseph Lustberg · CEO, Upwise Capital
“We’re getting face time with people that are in it day in, day out, who have real problems and are looking for solutions. Some people have actually flown in from Massachusetts and California to connect with brands and retailers and manufacturers here in Colorado, because you’re getting everybody in one place.”
Max Juhasz · Founder, BrandrAI
“Colorado hasn’t had a formal cannabis conference in four or five years, and the business community has been itching for it. There’s been so much M&A in this state, alongside some of the strongest OG brands and retailers in the country.”
John Shute · CEO, PufCreativ
More than 400 people and 65 speakers came to Denver. The attendance number isn’t the story. Those four comments are: regulators thinking about adaptation, capital looking for profitability, operators protecting margin, and service providers selling solutions to problems that only get harder when growth stops covering them.
That’s what a mature cannabis market looks like from the inside.
The Capital Divide
When the rules become the economics
Two states, opposite directions, same underlying question: who decides what this costs?
North Carolina is designing the economics before the market exists. Its proposed public-retail model leaves procurement, markups, shelf allocation, store density and supplier margins unresolved — and those choices, not the market, will set prices. The 10 pricing questions still unanswered →
Texas is rewriting the economics of a market it already has. The disputed framework would count THCA toward the THC limit, charge $10,000 for a manufacturer licence and $5,000 for a retailer, and raise the penalty for getting it wrong. Texas counted more than 14,000 consumable-hemp licensees and registrants in 2025 — up from none in 2020. What the Texas fight means for operators →
From our newsroom
An eighth cost $15.31 in Washington and $54.11 in Minnesota in August. That spread comes from Trans-High Market Quotations, the price tracker High Times has run since 1974 and has now revived under our Chief Economic Columnist Rolando García, publishing weighted state-level prices monthly from point-of-sale data.
The Bottom Line
Stop counting stores.
For years a cannabis company could demonstrate growth by putting more dots on a map. That stops being convincing when prices are falling almost everywhere.
A store opening in Ohio, an acquisition in New Jersey and a relocation in Connecticut are not the same event, and none of them should be valued just for preserving footprint. What matters now is cash flow, margin, return on invested capital and store-level productivity.
And $15.31 in Washington against $54.11 in Minnesota is the reminder underneath all of it: there is no such thing as the cannabis price. There are dozens of markets producing completely different outcomes.
Tell us: if store count is a weaker measure of growth now, what should investors watch instead? Email the desk — we’ll run the best answers in next week’s issue.
Upcoming IgniteIt Events
Los Angeles Market SpotlightOct 7 · Los Angeles
Cannabis Capital & Policy SummitNov 18 · Washington DC