Cannabis Companies Keep Expanding. Deflation Is Changing Where—and How

This week, MariMed opened a dispensary in Columbus, TerrAscend closed a structured transaction for a New Jersey retailer, and Curaleaf announced one new store and two relocations across Florida, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut. Cannabis companies are still expanding, but the operating logic has changed.

Taken alone, the announcements look like another round of footprint growth. Viewed alongside new pricing analysis from Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic & Associates, they tell a more disciplined story.

Retail cannabis prices declined during the past two years in 16 of the 17 markets examined by Zuanic. The severity varied considerably: flower prices fell approximately 43% in New Jersey, 42% in Connecticut, 18% in California, and 10% in Ohio.

Operators therefore cannot treat every new dispensary—or every additional dollar of revenue—as equally valuable. Expansion now depends on choosing markets with favorable supply-demand conditions, buying assets after valuations have reset, and improving the productivity of licenses already controlled.

This week’s transactions illustrate all three strategies.

Ohio Is the Outlier

MariMed’s new Thrive Wellness dispensary in Columbus may be the clearest example of an operator expanding into a market where pricing remains supportive.

The company opened the store at 5825 Chantry Drive, converting a former bank branch into its second Ohio dispensary and its 14th Thrive location across five states. The building includes a drive-through window and dedicated curbside pickup spaces—features that make the location more than an additional retail box.

Convenience can become a competitive advantage as legal markets mature. Customers who once traveled long distances just to enter a dispensary increasingly compare locations based on access, speed, pricing, and product availability. The former bank infrastructure gives MariMed tools to serve repeat customers without requiring every transaction to go through the sales floor.

More importantly, Ohio is behaving differently from nearly every other major cannabis market in Zuanic’s analysis.

According to Zuanic, Ohio flower prices rose from approximately $5.75 per gram during the third quarter of 2025 to $6.25 during the second quarter of 2026. They reached approximately $6.51 per gram during the 13 weeks ending Aug. 29.

That makes Ohio the report’s largest exception to widespread cannabis deflation.

Zuanic attributes the unusual pricing environment to demand outpacing available supply, while noting that slow regulatory approvals for additional products and formats may also be limiting supply growth. Restrictions on intoxicating hemp products could provide another benefit to licensed operators by directing more purchases into regulated dispensaries.

Ohio’s cannabis dollar sales increased approximately 194% over two years, according to Zuanic’s calculations. Estimated product volume increased roughly 230%, reflecting the effect of the adult-use market’s launch as well as continued demand growth.

Those conditions strengthen the case for MariMed’s expansion. The state caps operators at eight dispensaries, leaving MariMed—with two stores—room to add locations. Its cultivation and processing infrastructure also allows the company to move its own brands, including Nature’s Heritage, Betty’s Eddies and Vibations, through Thrive stores.

That vertical relationship is the financial point. A dispensary contributes more than retail revenue when it can also capture margin from internally produced merchandise. If MariMed uses the Columbus store to increase sales of its house brands while Ohio prices remain firm, the location can support both retail throughput and wholesale production.

The risk is that Ohio will eventually approve enough capacity to bring pricing closer to the national pattern. MariMed is opening while the imbalance remains favorable.

TerrAscend Buys Into New Jersey After a 43% Price Reset

TerrAscend’s acquisition strategy in New Jersey addresses the opposite environment.

The company closed its transaction involving Aunt Mary’s Dispensary in Flemington, adding a fifth New Jersey retail location and its second store in Hunterdon County. TerrAscend previously added Union Chill in December.

Aunt Mary’s generates more than $10 million in annualized revenue and is expected to be immediately accretive, according to the company. The transaction carries total potential consideration of $9 million: a $3 million, five-year unsecured convertible debenture bearing 6% interest, combined with $6 million payable when TerrAscend exercises an option to acquire a 35% interest.

The structure matters. It gives TerrAscend economic exposure while accommodating New Jersey’s ownership rules and the state’s policies supporting diversely owned cannabis businesses. It also provides a potential template for consolidating economics before full ownership becomes permissible or commercially practical.

But TerrAscend is not buying into a market protected from falling prices.

New Jersey flower prices declined approximately 43% over two years, 22% during the latest 12-month period and 8% sequentially during the second quarter, according to Zuanic. That quarterly decrease implies an annualized deflation rate above 30% if the pace were to continue.

The important counterpoint is volume.

Zuanic estimates that New Jersey’s cannabis volume increased approximately 89% during the same two-year period, while dollar sales rose only 8%. Consumers bought substantially more cannabis, but falling prices absorbed most of the resulting revenue growth.

That creates a difficult market for undifferentiated operators. It can still work for companies capable of acquiring productive stores at reasonable valuations, directing their own brands onto the shelves and spreading cultivation and administrative costs over a larger retail base.

TerrAscend has that opportunity with Kind Tree, Legend, Valhalla and Cookies. Selling more internally produced merchandise through Aunt Mary’s could allow the company to capture both wholesale and retail margin, even as declining shelf prices pressure each part of the chain.

New Jersey also remains a relatively high-priced market in absolute terms. Zuanic placed average flower prices at approximately $6.36 per gram during the second quarter. The market has experienced severe deflation because prices started high—not because New Jersey cannabis has become inexpensive compared with every mature market.

TerrAscend is effectively betting that Aunt Mary’s existing revenue, combined with vertical integration and a larger statewide network, can offset further price compression. The transaction is not a wager on rising New Jersey prices. It is an attempt to acquire established demand after the market’s economics have reset.

Curaleaf Adds One Store and Repositions Two Others

Curaleaf’s announcements require an important distinction: only one represents a net addition. The company opened its Port Richey dispensary on Sept. 17, increasing its Florida footprint to 78 locations. It was Curaleaf’s eighth Florida opening of 2026 and its second in the Tampa area.

“Florida remains an important medical cannabis market, and we’re proud to continue investing in its long-term growth,” CEO Boris Jordan said in the announcement.

Florida prices, however, have also moved lower. Zuanic estimates that the state’s price and product mix declined approximately 17% during the past two years and 5% over the latest 12 months. Its estimate places average flower pricing near $4.75 per gram.

Yet estimated volume increased approximately 29% over two years, while dollar sales rose around 7%.

That combination explains Curaleaf’s continued retail expansion. Florida is not producing strong growth through pricing, but its large patient population can still support additional stores in carefully selected areas. The goal is to capture more transactions, route consumers toward internally produced brands, and improve the utilization of cultivation capacity.

Curaleaf’s other two announcements were relocations rather than footprint expansion.

In Pennsylvania, the company moved its Passyunk dispensary to a larger location in Fishtown. The move preserved Curaleaf’s 18-store Pennsylvania count while providing expanded retail space, a broader assortment, and access near Interstate 95.

Pennsylvania has been comparatively stable. Zuanic reported an approximately 8% price decline over two years and only a 1% decrease during the latest 12 months. The market’s average price of approximately $7.53 per gram remains high relative to most states in the analysis.

The Fishtown move is therefore about making an existing license more productive. Curaleaf is placing the store in a location designed to attract more patients and support a broader inventory without spending a license on incremental statewide expansion.

Connecticut presents a more difficult pricing picture.

Curaleaf is relocating its Hartford dispensary to Meriden, maintaining four stores in the state. The new location sits between Hartford and New Haven and is intended to improve access for patients and adult-use consumers across central Connecticut.

“The relocation to Meriden puts Curaleaf right where our consumers and patients need us to be,” Jordan said.

Connecticut flower prices fell approximately 42% over two years and 28% during the latest 12 months, according to Zuanic. Dollar sales increased only about 2% over two years, but Zuanic’s calculations imply that volume rose roughly 76%.

As in New Jersey, more cannabis is moving through the regulated system without producing comparable revenue growth. Relocating an existing store toward a broader trade area is a direct response: preserve the license, improve convenience, and pursue higher transaction volume without adding another location to the cost base.

Expansion Now Has to Do More

This week’s announcements show that cannabis expansion has not stopped. It has become more selective.

MariMed is adding a store in the rare major market where prices have risen. TerrAscend is acquiring established revenue after a dramatic New Jersey price correction, using a transaction structured around local ownership rules, while Curaleaf is adding capacity in Florida and repositioning stores in Pennsylvania and Connecticut to improve the productivity of its existing licenses.

The common denominator is control over distribution.

In a deflationary market, operators need retail locations that can pull through internally produced brands, generate sufficient transaction volume, and reduce the unit cost of cultivation, logistics, and administration. A dispensary that cannot accomplish those objectives risks adding expenses faster than it adds durable cash flow.

Zuanic’s analysis makes the pressure clear: cannabis demand can expand rapidly while reported sales barely move. When prices fall 20%, 30% or 40%, operators must sell far more product just to protect revenue—and even more to protect profit.

That is why investors should look beyond how many stores opened and ask what those stores change: Do they enter a market with constrained supply? Do they add immediately accretive revenue? Can they sell more house brands? Do they improve access without increasing the license count? And can their margins withstand another year of price compression?