Idaho Medical Cannabis Report Projects More Than $100 Million in Annual Sales

A new economic analysis commissioned by the Natural Medicine Alliance of Idaho outlines how a tightly regulated medical cannabis program could reshape the state’s economy, projecting more than $100 million in annual retail sales within a few years of implementation. The findings, first reported by Marijuana Moment, offer Idaho’s most detailed look yet at the potential fiscal impact of a medical-only system modeled on Utah’s conservative framework.

The report, prepared by Younger Associates, uses Utah’s participation rates and spending patterns to estimate how Idahoans might adopt a similar program. Utah was selected for its geographic proximity, comparable demographics, and restrictive medical-only structure. Under that model, Idaho could see approximately 63,000 active patients and $108.5 million in annual retail sales by Year 6.

The analysis emphasizes that the projections are not predictions but benchmarks. In the report, the authors note that the figures are intended to provide “illustrative, scenario-based benchmarks to support strategic discussion” and “should not be interpreted as a forecast or policy recommendation.”

Two tax structures were evaluated. Under Scenario 1, which applies Idaho’s existing 6% sales tax plus a $100 annual patient card fee, the state would collect about $6.5 million in annual sales tax revenue and $6.3 million in card fees by Year 6. Scenario 2 adds a 14% point-of-sale levy, bringing total annual state revenue to roughly $28 million, including patient fees.

U.S. Senate Candidate Advocates for Legalization

Advocates say the numbers highlight what Idaho stands to gain by regulating a market that already exists. Joe Evans, a cannabis advocate with KindIdaho and a candidate for U.S. Senate, told IgniteIt that the economic case is straightforward. 

“The economic case for legalization in Idaho centers on retaining local capital and replacing the underground market with a regulated framework,” he said in a statement to IgniteIt. “Currently, Idahoans spend an estimated $250 million annually in neighboring states and more through illicit channels. A regulated system would capture a significant portion of this activity, supporting local small businesses, agriculture, and in-state supply chains.”

Evans said the projected revenue aligns with what advocates have long argued. 

“Projections indicate approximately $100 million in annual medical sales and tens of millions in state revenue,” he said. “This would drive job creation across cultivation, processing, retail, and compliance while reducing interstate purchases and illicit markets by half.”

He also noted that one unresolved federal issue could influence participation in Idaho’s potential regulated medical cannabis program. 

“If federal prohibitions tied to firearm ownership are upheld, participation rates and projected revenues may fall short, as many Idahoans may choose to continue purchasing out of state rather than forfeit their Second Amendment rights,” Evans explained.

A proposed medical cannabis legalization initiative from NMAI, which has apparently surpassed the statewide signature threshold for ballot qualification, proposes a limited and tightly regulated system with a small number of vertically integrated operators and no home grow option. Supporters frame the measure as a patient-focused reform that aligns with Idaho’s conservative values while keeping economic activity inside state borders.

For policymakers, the Younger Associates analysis provides a data-driven baseline for evaluating the fiscal implications of medical cannabis. For voters, it highlights a central question heading into November: whether Idaho continues exporting cannabis spending to surrounding states or builds a regulated system that captures revenue, supports local businesses, and provides patients with legal access close to home.