After a Six-Year Bear Market, Cannabis Sees Light

By Todd Harrison via Cannabis Confidential.

We navigated the tornados and returned from the IgniteIt Cannabis Conference in Chicago with fresh insights in tow. ATB-Cormark analyst Freddy Benson Gomes hit the high notes with his recap this morning:

Optimism Around Retroactive 280E Relief: Several MSOs believe the IRS will issue 280E guidance very soon. Crucially, there is wide anticipation that this guidance may include retroactive relief for medical sales dating back to August 2023, when the HHS first issued its rescheduling recommendation.

M&A is the Defining Theme: We noticed a significant uptick in discussions around consolidation among MSOs. Consensus view is the industry remains too fragmented; many expect small and mid-sized companies to merge or be acquired to form larger platforms. Consequently, we believe M&A activity will accelerate into 2027.

Don’t Overlook the Hemp Catalyst: Operators are already seeing noticeable operational improvements in states like Ohio where intoxicating hemp has been banned. Most believe the incoming federal intoxicating hemp ban (effective Nov.) will drive meaningful organic growth over the next couple of years (we heard mid-single-digit to 20%). We view this as a major catalyst that investors are overlooking.

Scarce Canadian Presence: Surprisingly, fewer than a handful of Canadian LPs attended the conference despite the looming regulatory shifts. Nonetheless, we maintain our view that select Canadian companies will invest in the US, and expect cross-border M&A to accelerate post-rescheduling.

[me: Village Farms, Rubicon Organics, and Organigram were there]

Cautious Approach to Uplistings: Noting Trulieve’s post-NYSE listing under-performance (we believe it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions), operators emphasized the importance of timing uplistings strategically with a correct structure.

Institutional Investment Will Come Gradually: As regulatory reform progresses, the general expectation is institutional investors will re-enter the sector gradually. Anecdotally, saw the same level of investor activity as last year (we would have expected an increase in investor attendance). The industry is still very early in trying to grab attention from large institutions.

Positive Sentiment: The overall tone of the event was bullish. Executives sounded significantly more positive than previous years, and consensus is that rescheduling will move forward quickly following the conclusion of the July 15 hearings.

Chicago City Limits

The pregame began Saturday as it typically does, with Patrick and I stuffing gift bags for our 72 dinner guests. This is something we enjoy doing and it has become a bit of a tradition as we seem to identify new efficiencies each year.

The event was buzzing, with a lot more energy than years past. The operators were speed dating it seemed, with genuine interest surrounding what cross-border link-ups could look like. Yes, if there was a theme, it was an openness to explore fresh fits.

My lone content was to moderate a panel with Danielle Drummond of CoLab, which works closely with Ascend on meaningful social equity initiatives, and Weldon, as we spoke of the unfinished business in D.C. and the pardons/clemencies on the horizon.

From there, we activated the round-up at the Ascend River North store, where we also did some due diligence to see if their Illinois flower is as 🔥 as their NJ product and news flash, it was every bit as delicious, including their Honor Rolls and Highwires.

The highlight of the event was our annual Executive Dinner. This gathering began as a small group six years ago and has morphed, per Charlie Bachtell, into the “best night of the year in cannabis.” This year we honored Weldon Angelos from Mission [Green], who attended the gala with his wife and son, for his tireless efforts on the front lines.

After we thanked our sponsors, we played a five-minute sizzle reel from Weldon’s upcoming documentary, Unlikely Allies, which, after a final scene is filmed in the next month or so, is expected to be released ahead of the midterms. Weldon has been a driving force behind federal reform and the industry showed up with support.

Following the video, I thanked Weldon for his efforts and shared that IgniteIt and CB1 Capital would each pledge funds to Mission [Green] and then an amazing thing began to happen, slowly at first but then with increased frequency and vigor.

Sam Brill from Ascend raised his hand to pledge, as did Sully from Cresco, Camilo from Curaleaf, Peter from Chicago Atlantic, Chris from Dutchie, VEXT, Village Farms, AGP, C3, Reklaim, AdvisorShares and others, while Jushi and MariMed committed to the round-up program in 2H26. In total, we raised over six-figures for Weldon & Co.

I’d like to thank everyone who supported this cause and those who continue to work to finish the job. The back half of 2026 should be active, if not special, and after a six-year bear market, we look forward to real growth as intoxicating hemp vanishes, new states adopt, and regulatory parity and tax clarity arrives.

Have a safe journey, please enjoy responsibly.

If you’d like to help Mission [Green] change federal cannabis policies, please click here.

CB1 has positions in/ advises some of the companies mentioned and nothing contained herein should be considered advice.

This article is from an external, unpaid contributor. It does not represent IgniteIt’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.